report from South Sinai, Egypt

[NotLostJustWandering]

Alhamdulillah, the Egypt-wide Internet blackout that has all but isolated us from the outside world is over -- for now at least. Just spend the last couple of hours posting the following on Facebook. Sorry if it reads a little disorganized; it's all off-the-cuff, written with the expectation that the internet connection could get cut off again at any moment. I removed my phone number from the original posts; otherwise this is the same as I just told my friends and family.


Connection to the Internet has been restored for Egypt, but there's no telling how long it will last. I have heard no explanation as to why it came on, just as there was no explanation for the 1 hour of connection we had in the middle of the seven-day government-imposed blackout. SMS service remains suspended; we can neither send nor receive text messages.
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PLEASE, friends: if I do not post again here tomorrow, PLEASE CALL ME. The most stressful aspect of this revolution/civil war so far is the feeling of being isolated from the outside world. My number is ######. It's not very expensive to call if you use Skype, whereas it cleans out my phone credit to do as much as leave a message on voicemail in an international call. And if there is another Net blackout, it would be great if anyone who calls me would post here what we talk about on the phone so you can share information. Thanks to all.
*
Will write more, in segments, in case we get switched off before I can finish writing.

First of all: I am quite safe. There have been no protests or riots in South Sinai, and there are no signs that any will happen. We do not have the severe socioeconomic problems that drove the Cairenes to the streets, and everyone here is too concerned about tourism to rock the boat.
The most serious threat would be if things got so chaotic/repressive that we stopped receiving supplies such as gasoline from Cairo. We are quite isolated here, and if the gas ran out we would get a foretaste of what the world will face on Peak Oil: inability to ship food and drinking water.
Heard today about a gasoline delivery en route here. Encouraging. A rumor. The town has been a-flurry with rumors about what is going on and what will happen. All the way from "don't worry, things will soon get back to normal" to "we must all stock up now on drinking water, canned goods and propane."
We see that there is no news on the air about Sinai. Interesting how we are being ignored. On the one hand, understandable as we do not riots and protests. On the other, strange because we have had a revolt of our own -- the local Bedouin tribe has taken over Nuweiba and driven out the Egyptian police -- and our position on the Egypt-Israel border creates the potential for an even larger conflict to ensue. Not likely, but the consequences would be so serious.


So far the Egyptians have had too much to worry about to try to take back Nuweiba, but of course it is a matter of time before they must. Then, most likely, the Bedouin will surrender. For now, they gloat over their victory but fail to make... long-term plans to defend the town from the Egyptian army, or to make alliances with the other tribes and spread their revolt. Egypt continues to control towns North of Nuweiba, all the way to the Israeli border. Like most foreigners, my sympathies are with the Bedouins and I would love to see an independent Sinai. Can you imagine a state between Israel and Egypt, run by the Bedouin, who generally like the Israelis and loathe the Egyptians? I would imagine the USA would love the idea but doubt the administration has any inkling of Sinai ethnic politics.See more

Nuweiba, incidentally, is the port town where the ferries to Jordan and Hurghada leave from. A small town, but very important.

I am sure Israel is keeping a closer eye on the Bedouin uprising than the BBC. If, when confronted by a renewed police force, the Bedouin do not surrender, Egypt will be forced to send in the army, a violation of the Camp David accord that governs Sinai; Egypt is not allowed to send the army here. Of course, that has already been violated by the sending of the army into Sharm-el-Sheikh to keep things safe and orderly for the Dicktator and the tourists. Reportedly Israel is already angry about this.


The craziest speculation going around is the prospect of another Israeli invasion. Most people, including myself, think this highly unlikely, though in a left-handed way it would be a boon to Mubarak since a foreign invasion would likely rally Egyptians behind their leader. And for all the show of emnity, Mubarak is a good friend of Israel.

The Bedouin would love to see the Israelis back here. Most of us foreigners would, too; they ran the place a lot better than the Egyptians do. Hell, we'd even get queer rights. I'd like to see it happen -- I'd feel a lot less motivated to go back to the USA -- but I'd hate to see the revolution get stifled by the call to war.


Never thought, before I came to Egypt, that I'd ever welcome an Israeli invasion. Good sign that my refusal to cast my lot in with any political ideology has left my mind open to make new opinions.


Tourism was already slow in Dahab before the revolution began, and now, of course, it has gotten worse. Mashraba is like a ghost town, with some hotels at 0% occupancy. I was surprised to hear the other day that, with the British government...'s official proclamation that Sinai is safe for travel, flights from England to Sharm-el-Sheikh have SOLD ALL SEATS. No sign of any of these Brits taking the bus to Dahab yet, though...

I now get more clients through the Web than any other way, so the blackout was a killer for my business, too. Businesses around Egypt lost millions. A sure sign of Mubarak's extreme selfishness: here is a dictator ready to let his entire nation sink so long as his head is the last to go underwater. How can anyone be so stupid as to support him? But idiots abound, and it's not hard to find Mubarak supporters here. The usual line is "he kept us from war for 30 years" but the best line for my blood pressure is "he has been leader for 30 years, why change now?"


Everywhere people are glued to their TV sets. Most shopkeepers can only get the censored official broadcasts, but some people use an alternative satellite service the government can not censor, so we still get to watch al-Jazeera in English..., the BBC and CNN. Of the 3, al-Jazeera is the most reliable. The BBC has broadcast misinformation about rioting in Sharm (nothing like it has happened). Probably relying on reports made by regular people with their cell phones.

People's reactions are mixed. Egyptians show much delight at the sight of crowds filling the streets, along with great anxiety and, among some, disapproval. The Bedouin have opined that the revolt may clear the worst Egyptian element of out Sinai and are proud of the takeover of Nuweiba, but many support Mubarak and have no affinity for the protestors

Overall, the prevalent mood is a desire for peace and stability again, with or without Mubarak. Yesterday it really looked like the end was in sight, with millions expected in the streets and the army officially declaring they would not sto...p protestors. But today we saw the counter-revolution begin and Mubarak making headway with his tactic of making concessions and empty promises. It infuriates me how many people there are stupid enough to let this stop just as victory is so close. And I can't believe how stupid and complacent the Bedouin are to not seize the chance to take Sinai for themselves. I think they would rather complain about the Egyptians than take the responsibility of administering a nation

When the revolution first started blossoming from what seemed a fringe movement, we felt a strange mix of conflicting feelings: a desire to see it happen here and help overthrow the dictatorship, and relief that it was not happening here. A...s the revolution took momentum it began to kill me that as a foreigner I had no right to take part in it even if it came to my town. I have deeply longed to throw Molotov cocktails and shoot cops. I realized that if street fights erupted here I would have a very hard time restraining myself from taking part.

When I first heard that the American State Department was advising Americans to come home and were arranging free flights, at first I thought I had to come back early, if for no other reason than to keep my family from worrying about me. I had already been planning to return to the USA, and have a ticket for 14 March, and for that hour it seemed that perhaps the sensible thing to do would be to forget about spending another six weeks here. It would save so much struggling, including one more move, 10 February to a flat on Salaam Road. I thought of how struggle and frustration have been the themes of this whole trip ever since I left the USA. And yet the idea of leaving prematurely and suddenly made me miserable. I cried for about an hour, and then friends helped me regain perspective. I decided to take things day by day and not let the fear-mongerers suck me into their drama.

I have my heart set on moving into that lovely apartment on Peace Road and passing DahabMassage onto my partner in an orderly and timely way. I have many pictures to take. Although I don't think I will ever come back once I leave, I love this place.

Glad to have been able to post for this long. Think I will save the rest for tomorrow; hopefully I'll still be able to post then.

Pray for peace, justice and freedom.
Atiq

[Realist]

It's great to have our own correspondent to give his perspectives on what's going on, over there!

Thanx for the report!

[darkeyes]

You keep safe Atiq.. events there are turning really nasty and the whole picture is changing so fast.. where it will end now no one can say, but I am not sure that whatever does happen will in the end be to the betterment of the great majority of the people of Egypt.. change is a must.. just what kind of change is to come is unclear.. I fear for the worst yet do hope I am wrong..:)

[DuckiesDarling]

Not much to add but hugs, Atiq. It's a history making moment over there but it is scary as hell.

[void()]

Good to hear from a brother. :) Be safe. You may never get an explanation, luv. Do the nomads there also use star sticks? Recall once of an old bloke who navigated a desert using a little stick. It had notches, pictures in dots on it No one could figure it out. But he always knew where he was and how to go anywhere.

[Annika L]

Thank you so much for that, Atiq!

Keep us posted as you can/wish, and do keep yourself very safe.

I wish you and everyone in the region the best.

In terms of my thoughts, I don't find the prospect of an Israeli invasion of the Sinai to be completely absurd. I heard a news report a day or two ago that said that Israel is urging the US to help keep Mubarak in office "at all costs".

[This is ridiculous, of course...I mean, the guy's what? 80? Does Israel think he'll live forever? They're going to have to face his absence eventually, anyway, and currently, the man who seems most likely to replace him sounds intelligent and rational...from what little I've heard, anyway.]

So far, the US doesn't seem interested in propping up Mubarak (good call, I believe...an all too rare instance of us following our democratic ideals). So if the Israelis panic, I could see them doing something extreme like invading the Sinai *in order to* get the Egyptians to rally around their leader. And the reports I hear make Israel sound close to panicking...or maybe that's just their rhetoric. Maybe not likely...but not crazy either.

Ok, enough. Be well, stay safe, know people are thinking of you, blackout or no...and watch this crazy ride as it unfolds! *hugs*

[AidanS57]

Hope you are staying safe, it's just damned scary over there.


Aidan

[NotLostJustWandering]

Talked with my Bedouin-American buddy in Nuweiba today and got more info on the uprising. Turns out reports of a "takeover" were highly exaggerated (blame Bedouin bravura). The Bedouin can be said to be running the streets of Nuweiba, but the Egyptian government is still administering the city and the port (yes, the Jordan ferry is still running) and all concerned are cooperating peacefully.

Bedouin gunmen are monitoring traffic in and out of the city and have already successfully repelled would-be looters from the desert (That's another story they love to tell here, too.). Gunmen have fired warning shots at checkpoints in a show of force (no one was shot) and some policemen fled, but there is still a police presence in Nuweiba. They are, as my friend described it, keeping low and being very polite. I forgot to ask him about the story of the police station having been taken over.

In any case, the Bedouin can be said to be running Nuweiba in the same way drug dealers can be said to gun ghetto neighborhoods -- actually, that's a bit more than an analogy! But they have no vision of a proper revolt, probably due to lack of agitation by foreign anarchists. I plan to pay Nuweiba a visit very soon. :smilies15

[darkeyes]

Having just spent the last half hour or so after my last class of the day listening to often confusing reports coming in from Egypt, is it just me, or as it appears to me, is the ruling party apparatus just stalling and making noises about change which are purely cosmetic while it positions itself to hang on to power whether or not Mubarak falls?

[NotLostJustWandering]

And the reports I hear make Israel sound close to panicking...or maybe that's just their rhetoric. Maybe not likely...but not crazy either.

Not seeming so crazy to me, either, as I read this report from the Israeli side:
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/142018

No idea of the accuracy of the report. It might or might be the same incident that happened in North Sinai a few days ago, which people are talking about here, where Bedouin attacked a police station with a rocket launcher. But these men weren't motivated by politics, just revenge for the beating of a family member by police. In any case, it's an interesting read on one Israeli perspective on the Bedouin and Sinai. "Terrorists" indeed.

The Bedouin are well-armed, as you would expect from people whose main industry is making and smuggling hashish, and whose semi-nomadic homeland straddles the border of two hostile nations. The police and army have only had an easy time with them because they are so inclined to make peace as long as they can pursue their livelihood with relative freedom, and because their tribal divisions prevent them from forming a unified defense against Egyptian oppression.

They are nostalgic for the days when Israel occupied Sinai and would clearly welcome an Israeli invasion. Many have families across the border and speak Hebrew. However, I think there is very little awareness of this in Israel and that the average Israeli imagines there's nothing but hostility all around them.



Ok, enough. Be well, stay safe, know people are thinking of you, blackout or no...and watch this crazy ride as it unfolds! *hugs*

Thank you, Annika.

[NotLostJustWandering]

Having just spent the last half hour or so after my last class of the day listening to often confusing reports coming in from Egypt, is it just me, or as it appears to me, is the ruling party apparatus just stalling and making noises about change which are purely cosmetic while it positions itself to hang on to power whether or not Mubarak falls?

Actually have only begun to check news reports today, so I don't know of any internal divisions within the ruling party. But certainly Mubarak's tactic has been exactly as you describe. Try to appease the people and bide time while the revolt runs out of steam, the police can regroup and systematically jail, torture and kill all opposition leaders. I really, really hope the rank and file protester doesn't fall for this ploy.

[NotLostJustWandering]

Good to hear from a brother. :) Be safe. You may never get an explanation, luv. Do the nomads there also use star sticks? Recall once of an old bloke who navigated a desert using a little stick. It had notches, pictures in dots on it No one could figure it out. But he always knew where he was and how to go anywhere.

No doubt they guy knew the desert like the palm of his hand and probably just used the stick shtick to make fun of naive outsiders.

[NotLostJustWandering]

You keep safe Atiq.. events there are turning really nasty and the whole picture is changing so fast.. where it will end now no one can say, but I am not sure that whatever does happen will in the end be to the betterment of the great majority of the people of Egypt.. change is a must.. just what kind of change is to come is unclear.. I fear for the worst yet do hope I am wrong..:)

Don't fall for the fearmongering about the Islamic Brotherhood. They probably owe their degree of success here -- compared to opposition movements that have been completely trampled -- to being so fanatical that the threat of jail and torture can not scare them away from organizing. But once that threat no longer hangs over all opponents of the Mubarak regime, the Brotherhood should quickly lose rank as the most organized opposition group. They do not have a sufficient base of support to hold power here even if they can seize it. The average Egyptian is way too fond of sex, drugs and habibi music for this country to go the way of Saudi or Iran.

The truth is that the Brotherhood has been the bugaboo used to rationalize the Mubarak regime's authoritarian reign and its support from the US, just as the Islamist threat motivated our backing of Saddam Hussein. It was the same deal in the Communist era, when the Red Menace rationalized American support for fascist dictatorships in Latin America and elsewhere, such as, er, Iran.

[12voltman59]

thanks for your reports from Egypt---I hope that this can possibly work out that a true democratic government can come from all of this.

It never ceases to amaze me at the actions of despotic leaders that they would actually do far better if they allowed their people a true measure of both political and economic freedoms so that a country truly progresses and as the old canard goes "a rising tide raises all boats" such that with the increased level of wealth and such experienced by their people--it helps to raise their portion too---they don't seem to understand that perhaps if they weren't so damn greedy--both in terms of money and control---they could actually have more money at least--by having a smaller piece of a bigger pie-but no--they have to have it all--all the money and all the power!!!

What does concern me here in America---is that those quiet, behind the scenes, never expose their real identities power elites here in our country no longer care if we have a prosperous middle class with some degree of power and if not wealth--at least a satisfying degree of money and "freedom" for most people--they hate that idea and want to take it all of that away from the greater number of people, with most if not all of the money and power being held only in their hands.

I wish you and your people all the best wandering and that from this---comes the end of the corrupt regime of Hosni Mubarak and the coming of a more free and just Egyptian society that extends more economic and political power and freedom to Egyptians.

[darkeyes]

Don't fall for the fearmongering about the Islamic Brotherhood. They probably owe their degree of success here -- compared to opposition movements that have been completely trampled -- to being so fanatical that the threat of jail and torture can not scare them away from organizing. But once that threat no longer hangs over all opponents of the Mubarak regime, the Brotherhood should quickly lose rank as the most organized opposition group. They do not have a sufficient base of support to hold power here even if they can seize it. The average Egyptian is way too fond of sex, drugs and habibi music for this country to go the way of Saudi or Iran.

The truth is that the Brotherhood has been the bugaboo used to rationalize the Mubarak regime's authoritarian reign and its support from the US, just as the Islamist threat motivated our backing of Saddam Hussein. It was the same deal in the Communist era, when the Red Menace rationalized American support for fascist dictatorships in Latin America and elsewhere, such as, er, Iran.

I havent fallen for anything Atiq.. the situation is far too confusing. As ever though, I am deeply suspicious of those who hold power and what I perceive as their posturing.. revolutions dont always give people what they want and very often turn out with a society which is in an even worse state than when that revolution began.. as yet I am not disheartned, merely concerned.

The Muslim brotherhood has as much right to play their part in a country's affairs as any other grouping, but I know as well as you probably do that very often when great change is under way, the most unlikely things happen to upset the apple cart, and we suddenly get one elite being exchanged for yet another.. the transition after the Russian revolution is an example of that where popular desperation for real change ended up ultimately with Bolshevik power and the Bolsheviks, contrary to their name were hardly a majority.. events and circumstances catapulted them to power and there is no guarantee in any revolution that the people of any given country wont end up with the most undesirable people in charge.. certainly not those most likely to meet their aspirations.. no matter a people's deep rooted predeliction for pleasure and the good things in life..

So for now, those of us not within the country sit awaiting a resolution and hope that in the end Egypt becomes a nation where freedom is accepted and enshrined in every fabric of its being...a long shot.. but a hope nonetheless.... how quickly that resolution will come and how satisfactory it will be for the Egyptians themselves time will tell.. one thing is probably certain.. the governments of Israel and the west are having very uncomfortable little while as circumstances unfold.. even the more so since there are now stirrings in both Jordan and Syria... however much the west likes or dislikes any of those regimes.. it is essential that they keep out of it and allow the people of Egypt and any other arab country which has such upheaval settle things for themselves..

[onewhocares]

Atiq,

Thank you for your thoughts and impressions. Insightful to be sure. PLEASE keep safe and out of harms way.

Belle

[Arthas]

Situation is not so good.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3wi3K8T3pPQ

Situations like this happen more and more often. We have a saying here: "To impotent government, people rise."

[tenni]

Thanks for the information Atiq. Take care of yourself.

Tonight on the CBCnewsworld it was reported that Mubarak's personal fortune is 10 (ten) billion dollars. His family fortune is reported to be 40 (forty) billion. Most of this is in land and houses/buildings in the USA and Europe. The average Egyptian annual income is $5 000 or they are living on about $2 per day (I may have missed something as that doesn't seem to match).

[darkeyes]

When will they ever learn...

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/feb/03/egypt-regime-death-toll-tahrir

[tenni]

Mubarak is on TV right now. I don't hear him stepping down though?

[bigbadmax]

Mubarak has transfered "some" powers. Millitary prevented all powers to avoid another dictator from same stable.

[darkeyes]

Mubarak is on TV right now. I don't hear him stepping down though?

I didnt expect him too, merely hoped..and watching him dressed in military uniform fills me with foreboding.. and so he stays he says.. until after the elections.. I suppose he needs that long to spirit away his 70 billion somewhere it cant be got at..

[DuckiesDarling]

I don't think anyone expected him to step down, it was merely an appearance to try and get the crowds to disperse and the riots to end.

[tenni]

I understand that the crowds in the square are very large. I doubt that they would be if they didn't expect a historical message from Mubarak. The VP has just spoken. Observations here are that both Mubarak and his VP are blaming the outside forces. They are asking the youth to go back to work for the economy. Observations are that since military persons early stated that the people would get all that they wanted that there has been a behind the scene conflict between the military & Mubarak with Mubarak winning....for now.

[darkeyes]

Observations are that since military persons early stated that the people would get all that they wanted that there has been a behind the scene conflict between the military & Mubarak with Mubarak winning....for now.

Dont believe everything the military say Tenni.. I'm unconvinced as to just how deep a conflict there has been in the regime and how much is cosmetic...

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/feb/09/egypt-army-detentions-torture-accused

[void()]

"revolutions dont always give people what they want and very often turn out with a society which is in an even worse state than when that revolution began.."

I concur and interject we have an evolution, as we all know to revolve means to come back around. If we evolve, we might go in straight line and ascend to our better selves and not bother coming back around. Then again, I'm some kooky fanatical wide eyed nutter. What do I know? :)

[NotLostJustWandering]

Dont believe everything the military say Tenni.. I'm unconvinced as to just how deep a conflict there has been in the regime and how much is cosmetic...

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/feb/09/egypt-army-detentions-torture-accused

Thanks for sharing this, Fran. This is much worse than the last news I'd heard about how the army was treating protesters -- a few shootings which we hoped could be attributed to a few petty hotheads.

It looks like the people of Egypt can not accept any interim government in which the army plays a role. And this is going to be hard to fight.

[NotLostJustWandering]

As far as I can tell there's been no escalation of Bedu/Egyptian conflict here in South Sinai, but it's a different story in the North.

Northern Sinai Heating Up -- Unrest product of alliance between Hamas and disgruntled Bedouin tribes
(http://www.themedialine.org/news/news_detail.asp?NewsID=31324)
"Embittered and emboldened Bedouin tribesmen have turned the northern Sinai Peninsula into a lawless and violent frontier between Israel and Egypt...

‎"Despite reports of an increased Egyptian troop presence, the local security forces have been severely degraded, increasingly attacked and in some cases overwhelmed. Most of the details of the chaos have gone unreported."

Sure have. Good on the Israeli and American Jewish media for paying closer attention.

Concern rising worldwide and along Israel’s border with Egypt (http://heritagefl.com/2011/02/10/concern-rising-worldwide-and-along-israels-border-with-egypt/)

"What is new, they note, is the behavior of the Egyptian soldiers manning the border. They are no longer facing Israel but toward the vast expanse of the Sinai Peninsula on their own side... “They have changed direction to make sure the Bedouin don’t slaughter them,” Zafrir said of the Egyptian soldiers."

Israel Braces for a New Egypt - WSJ.com (http://www.facebook.com/l.php?u=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB 10001424052748703313304576131461322124274.html%3Fm od%3Dwsj_share_facebook&h=e635b)

‎"Today the Egyptian army patrols over there. But if there is a mess, they will flee."

[NotLostJustWandering]

I understand that the crowds in the square are very large. I doubt that they would be if they didn't expect a historical message from Mubarak. The VP has just spoken. Observations here are that both Mubarak and his VP are blaming the outside forces. They are asking the youth to go back to work for the economy. Observations are that since military persons early stated that the people would get all that they wanted that there has been a behind the scene conflict between the military & Mubarak with Mubarak winning....for now.

Possibly. Another theory. Here there is a lot of speculation that the whole event -- from the announcement made by the army to the letdown of Mubarak's speech -- was intended to provoke a march on the Presidential Palace and a bloody confrontation with the elite of the army.

I don't think it's worth speculating on too much. All these theories presuppose too much logical thinking and premeditation on the part of Hosni Mubarak. I think he is an irrational and impulsive egomaniac. How did he benefit from turning off the internet a second time and then putting it back on shortly afterwards when new demonstrations began breaking out again? I really think he's making it up as he goes along.

[Bicuriousity]

What world leader isnt an irrational egomaniac though.

[darkeyes]

Mubarak has gone.. army in control.. now what? Watch this space peeps...

and so indeed peaceful protest can move mountains.. my hopes and dreams go with the Egyptian people and best wishes that their revolution bears the fruit of theirs...

[Realist]

Considering how many were involved , I think it's amazing that more folks didn't get hurt. It's a good thing that the revolution leaders, or the government, didn't advocate violence. Remarkable!

Now, I hope they can elect a viable leadership, who can start them on the way to improvement and a better life.

Whoever they choose, will have to be a strong, charismatic, and talented leader.

Good luck Egypt!

[DuckiesDarling]

What I would like to know is if anyone actually SAW Hosni Mubarak leave Cairo and if he was walking on his own when he did it.

[Long Duck Dong]

Mubarak has gone.. army in control.. now what? Watch this space peeps...

and so indeed peaceful protest can move mountains.. my hopes and dreams go with the Egyptian people and best wishes that their revolution bears the fruit of theirs...

how many people were hurt or died during this peaceful protest ?????

and * smiles * they may have moved a mountain.... but what is going to replace it.....?

[bigbadmax]

Parliament dissolved by milliatary.
Looks cunningly like a coup.

[darkeyes]

how many people were hurt or died during this peaceful protest ?????

and * smiles * they may have moved a mountain.... but what is going to replace it.....?

'Bout 200 died I believe duckie.. in gr8 scheme of things in a country of 85 millions that is peaceful.. 2 many dead..but mostly it wosnt the anti govt protesters who did the killin..

.. wot is gonna replace it?? Thats always a big question... still have hope it will be better than they have and had.. signs are mixed but all we can do is wait and see but am pretty sure there is no going back..:)

[Long Duck Dong]

'Bout 200 died I believe duckie.. in gr8 scheme of things in a country of 85 millions that is peaceful.. 2 many dead..but mostly it wosnt the anti govt protesters who did the killin..

.. wot is gonna replace it?? Thats always a big question... still have hope it will be better than they have and had.. signs are mixed but all we can do is wait and see but am pretty sure there is no going back..:)

there are 61 mill roughly in the uk...... I will believe your stance of a peaceful protest and how well it works, when there is a protest in the uk and about 180 people die

I reckon if that happened, peaceful protest would be the last words on your lips

now according to online reports, the number of deaths is likely to be about 6-900 people and that is according to groups like human watch and other human rights group.... and the general opinion is that egypt is now under military rule, a coup so to speak, so if thats the case.... its the military that won, not the people......

[darkeyes]

there are 61 mill roughly in the uk...... I will believe your stance of a peaceful protest and how well it works, when there is a protest in the uk and about 180 people die

I reckon if that happened, peaceful protest would be the last words on your lips

now according to online reports, the number of deaths is likely to be about 6-900 people and that is according to groups like human watch and other human rights group.... and the general opinion is that egypt is now under military rule, a coup so to speak, so if thats the case.... its the military that won, not the people......

It may well be the numbers you mention Duckie who have died.. no one is quite sure yet. The question really isnt how many died but who caused the deaths? It wasnt the protesters who began the violence. I am not saying that some are not responsible for a share of it, but from what we know the greater part of the violence which occured was instigated and carried out by those in support of the regime. That some protesters retaliated isnt in doubt.. but for the most part it was a peaceful protest. Much credit is down to the military's refusal to clamp down on the protests. The same cant be said of certain other government agencies.

It isnt a general opinion.. Egypt IS under military rule. The question is what is the military going to do about it? Will it retain power indefinately, or will it, as it has promised, or retain power only for so long as elections to a new parliament are arranged, the constitution is changed, and the conditions are ripe for a return to civilian rule? That may or may not be September.. hopefullly it will be before.. no one at this time knows.

I have never said this revolution will succeed in bringing the changes Egyptians want and need. It succeeded in removing its bogey man, and now we wait to see if they will have their other much more important aspirations realised.. an Egypt which is vibrant with a good degree of liberty for its people, and conditions in place so prosperity for the people can be achieved. As yet, that is not a lost hope.. it remains and like the Egyptians themselves we expect.. whether those expectations will be met your guess is a good as mine. Military coups are notoriously difficult to predict.. more often than not they do tend to bring to power people as brutal if not more brutal than those they have removed.. but not always.. the question is what do they have planned? As I said with concern in an earlier post.. watch this space.. the revolution isnt yet lost, and hope remains...

.. and if, as you hypothesise, in my country so many good people died in the manner of the majority of those in Egypt? Out of my lips would come the words "Police brutality".. for most of the brutality of this revolution came at their hands and the hands of supporters (often secret police themselves) of the regime. The demonstrators held firm in the face of immense provocation and erected barriers in their defence. That does not make what happened in Egypt not a peaceful protest or revolution.. not when it is the regime and its supporters who attack the protesters.. who in the main, for the greater part of 18 days were peaceful and fun loving and good natured and stood their ground against all predictions.. it could have been much less peaceful.. for the demonstrators could have poured out of their defences and swarmed around the cities and created real havoc.. that they did not is to their credit.. that the army stood by and did not act against them to theirs (why is an important question which will just not disappear out of my head) .. now it is the army which is on the spot and considers what to do.. and the people of Egypt expect of them much and in the interests of the whole region they have to deliver..

The revolution is not yet over.. the demonstrations for now may be.. and it may well yet erupt into a much more violent affair.. that I think is up to the military to prevent by doing what is expected of them.. like many, even most, I have my heart in my stomache, for I dont know what they will do.. I am as suspicious of them as I am of any military which takes over the affairs of a nation.. and deeply sceptical.. but as yet.. hope, Duckie.. is not yet extinguished..:)

ps Duckie.. in the last half century there have been many, many peaceful protests in the UK, often involving hundreds of thousands of people at a go.. and surprise, suprise, very, very few deaths.. some no doubt.. but these can be counted in on very few hands...

[Long Duck Dong]

snorts.... yeah peaceful.....I can not help but notice the reports of * peaceful protest *

this is from a report in cairo
The police, who were the targets of much of Friday's violence, had vanished from the streets and were replaced by the more popular Egyptian army, which was welcomed by protesters who hugged soldiers and snapped souvenir photos of their tanks.

Beni Suef, south of Cairo, police shot dead 17 people trying to attack two police stations and that eight people were killed during protests.


my simple point, fran... is how you have called the military terrorists in other threads and now you talk about how good they are.......

how its police brutality when police confront protestors, yet the protestors attacked the police and thats acceptable......

my fav, is the way that its never peaceful protestors that would loot houses and terrorise people......

if there is one thing I have learnt about peaceful protestors, the majority of them are not on the streets protesting........

no fran, I am not arguing things... I am just watching the change in stances depending on the circumstances and who is doing what......
thats the danger of opinions and stances, you have to change them regularly and contradict yourself constantly.......

[darkeyes]

I havent changed my stance on the military as a priniciple one jot Duckie.. my view is that by their very nature, the military are an institution which inflicts much terror and can when there is conflict or civil unrest, be called quite justifiably, terrorist.. it is the nature of their job.. but where, as in many humanitarianoperations, or where civil unrest exists, such as in Portugal in the 1970s and Egypt now, as well as Tunisia only recently, they show restraint and do not go after the civil population and protesters, I will give them great credit.. it does not change my view of the military.. I still hold to the view I have always held.. that they are there as much for the job of controlling the general population in the interests of the state and its elite as they are for defence against an outside threat.. it is when society is broken, even sometimes the military cannot stomache any more.. it is to be hoped that in the case of Egypt.. they are being honest brokers and will honour their pledges to restore civilian rule.

The police disappeared from the streets not because they were attacked by the civil population but because demonstrators would not budge, weight of numbers, because the military was on the streets, and because they were ordered to for they were required for more sinister purposes.. I have no doubt that some protestors attacked any police they encountered.. I do NOT condone this.. I do however understand it.. they were a part of the problem and deeply unpopular.. it was the police who tried to intimidate demonstraters... and it was the police, who as part of the pro Mubarak mobs who attacked Tahrir square...and actually no it is NEVER peaceful demonstrators who loot and terrorise others.. there are elements on any demonstration who may have done so, but they by no stretch of the imagination can be called peaceful protesters.. and many of these were in any case infiltrators of the regime into the demonstations.. the ID cards of many such people wre discovered in Tahrir Square itself when taken from people found to be suspicious by the protesters themselves..

.. and it is true.. most people have not demonstrated.. most people have stayed at home or gone about there daily lives as normally as they can.. that is the way of protest.. yet if everyone stayed at home or went about their daily lives, where is the protest? The demonstartions aginst the poll tax in this country were huge and sometimes violent.. yet most people stayed at home.. most went to work and went about their normal lives.. that did not mean that the vast majority did not support the protests.. Tahrir Square and Cairo hooever were not the only places where there were huge demonstrations... these happened elsewhere too, with Alexandria and Suez being the two prime examples...

I have not changed my stance one jot.. I remain a person who will not countenance violence..I believe passionately in peaceful protest..yet there will always be the likelihood of violence in any protest.. the question is who was responsible. From afar we can only judge by what we see, and read between the lines.. I do not condone any violence whatsoever, by protester or anti protestor, but police or by army.. my point isnt that there was no violence or that on occasion the demontrsatoprs occasionally were not responsible for some of it.. my point is that substantially, the protests of the people of Egypt against Mubark and hois regime were by and large, peaceful. Such violence as existed was not, by and large perpetrated by the protesters by by those opposed to them. Where they were at fault, I have no hesitation in condemning it.. but by and large, the revolution in Egypt was a peaceful revolution... that where there was violence it was in the main met by passive resistance and that where it existed it was ffar and away the responsibility of those opposed to change..

If you believe the Egyptian army would have stood by and acted as they did had the demonstrations been other than largely peaceful.. then you live in cloud cuckoo land.. had they been other they would have moved in and broken up those demonstrations with great brutality.. that they didnt tells me quite a lot..

[Long Duck Dong]

do you protestors have a carbon copy of your speech.... cos I see the same type of statements every time there is a protest.....

1) its not the protestors that are causing the issues, its a group of people, not associated with the protestors, they are there to cause trouble......
yet they are in with the protestors...

2) the police were heavy handed...... yeah strange that,... and the criminals use kid gloves and so do protestors even when throwing bottles and bricks and shit

3) the peaceful protestors won at the end of the day.... until they realise that things are now worse.. so they have to protest again to change the changes made cos of their last protest......

4) and yeah fran.... a ex vet knows nothing about how the military act, cos a non serving person with no experience knows all about how the military think and how they act

every time there is a protest, you always hear the * peaceful protest * banner waved..... and yet the number of peaceful protests that have resulted in death, violence and suffering.... sighs.... yeah.....


btw... it was political pressure and other countries that did the work....
unless the protestors have the ability to freeze bank accounts, and put political pressure on people to step down....
cos if peaceful protest ( by your defination, peaceful is only a few 100 people killed ) worked.... what happened with the G 8 summit... or prop 8.... etc etc...

[Realist]

Many Egyptians living in Florida are planning to go home, to be involved in the newly developing changes. I hope they are able to see and make positive changes for themselves and country.

[darkeyes]

I have never said I know how the military operates.. I simply know that they are not my cup of tea and have very particuler views of why it exists. You know how the Egyptian military thinks do you? And how it acts? U may have an inkling but I doubt you know.. that you will have an idea better than me I have no doubt of it.. but when did I question that? I have questioned several times.. wtf is the Egyptian army up to and why? They are acting out of character no doubt about that..

It may be that if the military dont live up to their promises of reform and return to civilian rule, the people of Egypt may well have to take to the streets.. it is a rare demonstration indeed which achieves its aims at one go.. whether or not Egyptians are ready for it should it be necessary I dont know..whether the wheels of the state turn and run them down who can say.. all I say is that promises have been made, some things have been done, more will be done, but whether it is what is needed and wanted remains to be seen.. if things are no better or get worse of course they have every right to once again go oto the streets.. just as people do in every "democratic" and liberal nation on earth!

The question is not whether there was violence.. it is just who was responsible for it and why?? What we go on is our media.. and I do allow for media bias.. that is why I check not only my own but that of other countries.. from Russia to France, the US to Israel, China to Australia, in South America..Africa and even Arabia.. my version of events seems to be more accepted than yours with a few rather dubious exceptions.. even if we were there on the ground and part of the demonstration being so close to it does cloud judgement and we see things wonderfully clearly when it is anything but in the cold light of day.. what we perceive when we are surrounded by our own kind in the heat of "battle" in any protest is not always as it is when we step back and see it through the eyes of others and reflect.. I have found that out often enough..too ioften.. euphoria ofetn disappears then..

..and of course pressure from outside played its part.. I dont disagree abit on that.. but the US and other countries were playing catch up from start to finish.. they were influenced by what was going on inside Egypt, and it was pressure from the Egyptian demonstrators on them which made them put pressure on the Egyptian authorities.. do no underestimate the power of protest to infuence the outside world.. protest in such circumstances is in part to do just that..TV and the media are essential allies when it comes to protest.. the governments of the so called democracies have their own electorates to consider and perception is often everything..

What happened at other great demonstrations of our time varies.. sometimes demonstrators did lose the plot and there was violence caused by them.. but in my experience invariably violence comes from some hot heads who are not peaceful and are there to create bother but more usually by intimidation by the police and the authorities.. not always..in the case of Egypt the vast majority were peaceful and acted with incredible retraint for a couple of days while attacked with petrol bombs from by passes and flyovers.... bottles and bricks were thrown initially not by them but by supporters of the regime.. that some responded I have no doubt.. but for the most part, demonstrators acted with incredible restraint against massive provocation for a very few days.. there was indeed violence, but by no stretch of the imagination can what happened in Egypt be described as a violent revolution.. it may yet develop into such... I hope not..you and I do not see things the same way.. and never shall on things such as this..peaceful and passive resistance and potest does not mean there will be no violence.. it does not mean no one will die.. for there are two sides in a protest.. and not always are both sides prepared to act peacefully..especially the side which has most to lose..... it does mean however that many people who are acting peacefully and passively are prepared to sacrifice their lives for their cause without being violent themselves..

As the smoke clears and we can better judge we may yet have to alter our view on the last few weeks in some way.. both of us..so much is yet unknown..but when history writes the story of this revolution I suspect it will be with admiration of a people who for 18 days acted with incredible restraint and bravery.. and who for the most part, were peaceful and acted with incredible dignity..

[DuckiesDarling]

What I find interesting are the reports of the stolen artifacts from the Egyptian museum. Makes you wonder exactly how many of the protestors were there to push for change and how many were looking for spare change.

[darkeyes]

What I find interesting are the reports of the stolen artifacts from the Egyptian museum. Makes you wonder exactly how many of the protestors were there to push for change and how many were looking for spare change.

*Laffs* Dont u bloody start an all.. makes me wonder just who is responsible.. lotsa things happen in a revolution which have nowt to do with it.. there are a lot of opportunists who will try and profit from unrest.. keep an open mind darlin darlin.. *huggles*

[Long Duck Dong]

the egyptian military stepped in to maintain order.... thats it..... they did as they were told... and you can bet your last dollar that the orders never came from within egypt.....

the egyptian army know that in a full faced firefight, they are in deep shit and would not stand up to a full frontal attack, they have the equipment, but not the training to deal with urban and restrictive combat......

inside egypt there are well equipped and very well armed and trained pocket units of fighters, that would rip the egyptian army a new asshole.... think afghanistan and nam for starters and how one of the worlds best armed military forces are not winning and you may realise that a army is not what you need to fear as much as the force that can take it down....

another aspect is religion and religious influence...

but..... lil hint.... think puppet army.... and watch over the next few weeks.... you will see just who is in control

[darkeyes]

the egyptian military stepped in to maintain order.... thats it..... they did as they were told... and you can bet your last dollar that the orders never came from within egypt.....

the egyptian army know that in a full faced firefight, they are in deep shit and would not stand up to a full frontal attack, they have the equipment, but not the training to deal with urban and restrictive combat......

inside egypt there are well equipped and very well armed and trained pocket units of fighters, that would rip the egyptian army a new asshole.... think afghanistan and nam for starters and how one of the worlds best armed military forces are not winning and you may realise that a army is not what you need to fear as much as the force that can take it down....

another aspect is religion and religious influence...

but..... lil hint.... think puppet army.... and watch over the next few weeks.... you will see just who is in control

ahh Duckie... that knows all things and sees all things.. wish I had that ability..;)

[jamieknyc]

No one in Israel has any interest in starting a war. Nor did anyone really consider Mubarak a friend of Israel. Their only concern is that the dictatorship is not replaced with some radical regime that is going to ignite another Middle East war.

[darkeyes]

No one in Israel has any interest in starting a war. Nor did anyone really consider Mubarak a friend of Israel. Their only concern is that the dictatorship is not replaced with some radical regime that is going to ignite another Middle East war.

At this time no one, except maybe the US and the Israeli gives a sod about what Israel thinks.. but thats not what Israel is most afraid of at all.. what it is most afraid of is an arab government which is a little less wishy washy when it comes to Israel doing its own thing and throwing its weight about..

..so Jamie, it is at the very least as likely that Israel will light the touch paper to that middle eastern war of which you speak than an Egyptian government or any other middle eastern regime..

[Long Duck Dong]

No one in Israel has any interest in starting a war. Nor did anyone really consider Mubarak a friend of Israel. Their only concern is that the dictatorship is not replaced with some radical regime that is going to ignite another Middle East war.

get outta my head :tong::tong::tong: